BERNIE’S LONG DRIVE

Normally, two years after the presidential election, the makeup of the House and Senate backs away from the party that wins the White House. But this time, in 2018, I’m wondering about the influence of Bernie Sanders and whether he can push it in the opposite direction – in this case, to the left.

Put another way, he’s enough of a veteran of the hardball politics to know you win some and lose some; it’s all about averages. This time, though, if the Democratic Party captures the political center, as it’s poised to do, the opportunity may be to push left in two years for that shift in some districts, rather than right, in reaction to White House positions and some inevitable voter disappointment.

Much would depend on Bernie’s ability to harness the enthusiastic youth from his primary campaign for local and regional races, as well as U.S. House and Senate drives. Achieving his progressive promises requires majorities in both halves of Congress, rather than the obstructionism of the Republicans during the Obama administrations in the aftermath of disastrous low voter turnout.

Call them Green Democrats, if you will, but they could be Bernie’s biggest legacy, with more clout than if he’d won the presidency.

The thought alone is tantalizing, even if the work ahead proves daunting.

A parallel development in other districts might be the emergence of centrist Democrats, which is fine by me. The national party, Republican or Democrat, is ultimately a coalition, state by state. I’m all for increasing a diversity of representation, meaning the people rather than the One Percent Citizens United.

DOCTORING THE RUMOR MILL

Anyone else waiting for a medical report on Donald J. Trump, performed by docs who have never met him? Perhaps by veterinarians diagnosing some mad dog disease or mad cow?

Unlike the prognosis he “released” about his rival, supposedly by a doc who included an email address and even a nonworking website on the letterhead?

Or is this just their GOP’s best alternative to Obamacare?

Me, I’d insist on something better.

WHAT WOULD EMERGE FROM THE RUINS OF THE GOP?

As the Donald J. Trump campaign illuminates the deep fissures in the Republic Party itself, the questions of the party’s future run rife.

Is its “tea party” movement dead, a victim of being bought out by big money? Can the conservatives continue to coexist with libertarians, and the other way around? Where would the vitriolic Trump core go? What about the Establishment wings of Wall Street money or Main Street businessmen, each of them of a pragmatic streak? Can any of the factions emerging from the Republican Party move to the moderate center where the independent voters cluster? Who would be welcomed and who would be scorned? We’re seeing how Trump despises everyone but aging white males – and like it or not, he’s the voice and the face of the party.

I had thought the Libertarian Party would have made more inroads than it has in the current climate, but I’m sensing that for many disenchanted Republicans, the pro-choice stance has to be a deal-breaker. Could be, too, Gary Johnson’s just too hippie for staid traditionalists of the Romney-Bush-Huckabee mold.

Step back, though, and you’ll see another dividing line running through each of the party’s constituencies. Any question of realignment would have to rest on the abortion issue.

It’s enough to make you wonder just what’s been holding them together, isn’t it? Or if there’s enough commonality to continue.

THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AS PART OF THE PROBLEM

I’ve previously posted about my belief that the Electoral College should be abolished. My primary reason is that the archaic institution makes possible the election of a U.S. president by a mere 25 percent of the voters, at least in theory. All it would take is winning 50 percent of the ballots plus one in states representing a tad over 50 percent of the population – and that’s in a two-way race. This time around, with four nominees to choose from, the popular vote could be far less.

The Electoral College also creates an outsized importance for the 11 biggest states: California, Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and New Jersey. Win them all and you’re the next president.  If you’re following the news these days, you see how that strategy is unfolding.

The existence of the Electoral College is casting other shadows across the current election season. Quite simply, it rigs the contest against third-party nominees and, as a consequence, reinforces the existing two-party system.

How is that? Well, unless a third-party candidate can carry a state, his or her popular votes simply disappear in the Electoral College results. And that’s for starters. In the unlikely event a third-party could drain off enough Electoral College votes to force the decision to be rendered by the U.S. House of Representatives, we can assume the outcome would reflect the majority party there. In this case, the party of Speaker Paul Ryan.

Rely instead on the popular vote and you automatically remove the House from consideration. You might also get a fairer representation of those votes over a majority in the biggest states, especially – under the current system, they’re essentially superfluous.

Third-party campaigns might find it easier to appeal to voters who would otherwise back the loser in a two-way race – especially if they might expect their selection to add to victories in other states in the final tally. It’s a long shot, I know, but it might foster some realignment in a situation like the one we’re facing.

For now, I’m seeing the Electoral College as a wall holding the major parties upright.

LOOKING FOR THE WIZARD OF OZ ANEW, BACK IN KANSAS

Governor Sam Brownback and his Kansas colleagues are demonstrating how bankrupt their conservative ideology proves in practice. It’s a disastrous experiment. When will the GOP realize those theories really are voodoo?

Maybe they’ll find a philanthropic billionaire to bail out the Cornhusker state. One who would say, “Here, rather than a campaign donation, I’ll aim my PAC at cleaning up the mess you’ve made.”

Or just buy it up in the impending fire sale. It might make a nice ranch for the weekend.

Just don’t ask about the soaring price of wheat that would follow.

SCUTTLING THE REST OF US, TOO

I keep reflecting on a blog posting by a woman who admitted backing Trump, not because she thought he could do anything to help her but simply because she wanted to say to hell with everyone and everything else. Whatever had caused her to wind up where she is in life, she’s blaming the rest of us and hoping to take us down into the depths with her. If only she could see how much worse the consequences would be for her, too – or the fact we’d have absolutely no sympathy for her in the toxic aftermath.

I’m not so liberal to bail her out, believe me.

REVIEWING THE BUMPY TRUMPY HORROR SHOW

During the presidential primary run, his Republican rivals had reason to complain that Donald J. Trump was garnering all of the coverage. It was, as it turns out, all about him, mostly from his point of view, that is, largely unquestioned. From a headline perspective, their problem was simply that they weren’t saying or doing anything new, meaning reporters and editors had nothing fresh to report on those candidates and their campaigns. A policy statement, let’s be candid, is news just once, when it’s released. Trump, in contrast, was providing outrageous grist for the mill – he was a truly unconventional, unpredictable, and unkempt subject. To their everlasting remorse, his opponents failed to take him on full-force, much less seriously, which would have at least landed them comparable headline presence. If they had only done their homework, they would have had many of the factual details that are finally coming to light against Trump and his ways. Gee, the recent New York Times report about Chris Christie’s forgiving Trump $25 million in overdue state taxes could have taken down two candidates at once, had Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or any of the other dwarves been on their toes.

News media coverage is not the only route to primary victories, by the way. Most of the Republicans were relying on very expensive direct-mail advertising flyers, at least from what we endured in New Hampshire. You may have read some of my household’s reactions.

In contrast, on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders was gaining ground by flying under the radar, sticking to a successful script that included little new material while hammering his points home in speech after speech. He was certainly helped by strong organization and a vibrant (dare I say organic?) grassroots social media presence.

When Nacky Scripps Loeb was publisher of the New Hampshire Union Leader, she liked to quote her late husband’s adage than negative publicity was better than no coverage at all.  I know the basis of the argument, especially for an upstart, but I’ve also seen its downside: sometimes the attacks really inflict damage.

You didn’t hear Trump complaining about the billions of “free media” exposure he got on his ascent, but maybe none of his inner circle could see it would eventually come with a price.

My, has it!

We find ourselves waking in the morning with an obsession to discover the latest. It’s not just the New York Times or Washington Post, either. Team Trump has been stimulating a stunning parade of  splashy tabloid headlines, from the New York Daily News to the Huffington Post and Politico. Done well, there’s an art to these, I’ll confess with admiration. Not that my journalistic training or practice ran in that direction.

Almost every day now has delivered a new, well, Trumpage that stirs up the question, Is he really trying to lose? Is he even running on Hillary’s behalf? In the latest round, the pundits are sensing his new strategy is to circle the wagons and focus on his core supporters while hoping the Libertarian and Green parties erode enough votes from Clinton to give him an edge. As they acknowledge, it’s a very risky approach, especially for someone who may be recognizing he’s really losing.

Step back from the daily revelations and you can see Trump’s bigger story is fitting into a classic type of fiction or biography or history – a rise-and-fall epic of tragic proportions. (Remember, true tragedy is what happens when a character challenges the gods and bears the consequences.)

In American literature, Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby or Herman Melville’s Moby-Dick come immediately to my mind, along with Peter Matthiessen’s less conventional Killing Mister Watson, which opens with the well-earned finale for a character who has a lot in common with Trump.

The Trumpster provides plenty to focus on as a character-driven story, especially of the psychological nature. He’s a spoiled bully full of inner conflict, anger, bombast, self-delusion, insecurity, social-climbing, hostility, and more, all abetted by the proverbial silver spoon.

There are other classic structures the story could also develop, including the idea novel, which starts with a question; the event tale, where the world is out of order and demands correcting; or the milieu narrative, which would require the protagonist to emerge a new person after traversing the strange landscape of American politics, big business, and celebrity entertainment posturing.

Each day, we’re reading and hearing more bits of the unfolding story.

Now into the post-convention stretch of the White House quest, Trump is still the primary subject of the media coverage. This time, though, as the plot line is well into the “fall” half of the equation, it’s been to Hillary Clinton’s advantage to be flying under the radar. Are we watching a death by a thousand self-inflicted wounds? Are all of his previous falsehoods, fraudulence, and flatulence finally resurrecting and running up behind him, like monsters from a horror show?

We’re still quite a few pages away from the final pages, and it’s possible Trump will somehow pivot into a new, unanticipated, denouement. Deus ex machina would be a huge letdown, to say the least, as would anything having him live happily ever after.

Not after all this.

EVIDENCE OF GROWING DESPERATION

One of my criticisms of third parties in American politics is their targeting the top office in the land, rather than the steps that lead to it, and then running candidates with little or no experience in public office for the job.

A crucial part of that experience, we should note, comes in campaigning itself. Can a candidate deliver a consistent message, face the voters, manage a staff, build an organization, raise funds, face criticism? It’s all stuff that will be needed once in office when addressing the details of legislation and governmental budgeting and management.

Little did I expect the Republican Party to find itself taken hostage by this situation when Donald J. Trump captured the nomination. Put simply, his lack of experience is showing in what may be fatal ways.

Yes, the GOP is fielding a full slate of candidates, but it’s lost control at the top.

Trump is a first-timer with no previous political resume, apart from the bribes he made all along disguised as campaign donations. This morning’s New York Times tells of one consequence of those connections – New Jersey’s attempt to collect $30 million in overdue taxes from Trump’s failed casinos, at least until Chris Christie stepped in and reduced it to a $5 million settlement. Sound familiar? And that’s Trump’s “law and order” ideal? It’s more like picking the pocket of every man, woman, and child in the Garden State for $3 apiece. That, or just an extra tax burden for that amount. You can bet it’s hardly the only example of his mode of operation, as we’ll no doubt be reading in the weeks ahead.

It’s no way to run a government, for certain. Or, for that matter, a long-term business. And as for Trump, if we can believe his bravado, the $25 million would have been pocket change.

Is Trump the Chump a fitting label? You can see who picked up the debt.

~*~

The New Jersey story, mind you, is only No. 2 on the day’s Trump news cycle. The bigger report is on his latest campaign staff shakeup, demoting Paul Manafort and naming conservative website operator Steve Bannon as his drive’s CEO and promoting Kellyanne Conway as its manager. She’s expected to travel with him, whether to fire him up or keep him on a leash remains to be seen. As for experience in running a campaign? Bannon has none, while Conway’s been a Republican pollster. Neither, apparently, has done ground-level organization work.

The moves can be seen as a reaction for Trump to retool in a more focused and restrained manner – or else. As the Washington Post is reporting, Bannon had been urging Trump to ignore those who want him to tone it down. So you can expect the outrageous statements to escalate. Remember when Sarah Palin “went rogue”? Oh, my.

Trump’s response, then, is defiance, reflecting his inflexible nature and inability to adapt to challenges. Yes-men who tell the boss what he wants to hear are always a danger in an enterprise. “Iceberg? What iceberg?” as the mate would have told the captain of the Titanic.

As for the Republicans, the appointment of the controversial Bannon, known for his disgust at both parties, could be final straw. The GOP may have to cut and run after all. As I was saying about third parties? In addition, those party loyalists who have been sticking with Trump while hoping for something to improve may find they’ve waited too long to bail. How long will the stigma stick?

This is really getting messy. Who would have anticipated this plot line?