IN ANOTHER KIND OF POLLING

Today’s mail delivered six big political campaign cards of the kind I’ve previously described — the stiff ones that are at least eight-and-a-half by eleven, although one was closer to nine by fourteen inches.

In a switch, only one is funded by Jeb Bush’s deeply bankrolled Right to Rise USA super PAC, and that’s an attack on both John Kasich and Marco Rubio. (You’re surprised I’ve come to the conclusion Jeb’s really in Donald Trump’s camp. Why else would you ignore the front runner?)

Rubio’s Conservative Solutions super PAC, meanwhile, rushes forth with a “Don’t trust Ted” assault on Cruz. Which has me wondering why Rubio, like Bush, is afraid to go after the Donald. Has this really devolved into a race for vice president? If it has, we can safely assume none of the GOP candidates in the race has a chance for either spot on the national ticket.

Meanwhile, Chris Christie is fighting back with a claim he’s “vetoed more tax hikes than any other governor in modern American history” and four talking points in his favor.

And I’m perplexed by two we got from America Needs Leadership, which opposes amnesty for illegal immigrants. No idea who’s funding it, but it’s clear its backers oppose President Obama. The fact the fliers quote the Moonie right-wing Washington Times says volumes.

Only one of the mailings takes aim at Trump — along with the rest of his GOP field — and that’s Hillary Clinton’s “They would all defund Planned Parenthood.” It’s not the first time we’ve seen her go after the Donald. Is it true that it takes a woman to do a man’s job, or whatever the joke is? I’m wondering.

What’s happening in our household is that as the campaigns and surveys keep calling us to see where we stand, I’m examining their campaign mailings for something similar. Do you have a plan you’re willing to stand behind or are you out and out negative? We already have too many right-wing politicians who haven’t done anything positive to speak of. You can decide not to spend anything, after all, and let the house fall apart or have the family go hungry. I wouldn’t brag about that, and apparently neither are they.

From the Republican side, the only one I’m seeing toeing a positive course is John Kasich, and his mailings are smaller in format and more modest. I like that. In fact, that’s truly conservative. The only one? I’m beginning to think so.

On the Democratic side, the tone’s altogether positive. For all of the Ronald Reagan shadow, if you’re looking for fresh ideas, look there.

And we still have a bit under two weeks to the primary election. Things are beginning to heat up in New Hampshire.

WHERE NEGATIVE ON NEGATIVE DOESN’T MAKE ANYTHING POSITIVE

One place where the Bush family might claim a legacy in American politics is in its reliance on casting an opponent in a negative light rather than advancing what one member called “the vision thing.” Not just a rival’s record, either, but spouses and children have been targeted as well. Just ask John McCain about the gossip spread in South Carolina back in 2000.

So here we are, 16 years later with another Bush in the running and our mailbox keeps getting attacks on his GOP opponents, most of them funded by his Right to Rise USA super PAC. Well, in one flyer, it was just three of them – Donald Trump somehow keeps going unnoticed. In the flyer, a photo shows Gov. Chris Christie from behind, to emphasize his obesity – while conversing closely with President Obama, a touch intended to inflame the hate-Obama core of the Republican base. It’s rather heavy-handed, actually.

The brochure does try to say something positive about its candidate: JEB, Tough, Tested, Ready. As we watch him in action, though, we have reason to doubt anyone in the field sees him that way.

As I view the waves of negativity, I keep thinking of individuals who are fountains of gossip – mostly dirty stuff, or at least juicy. Not what you’d want to hear about yourself. But then, when you mention this person to a mutual acquaintance, the response is something along the lines of “You should hear what they say about you.”

And that’s how I’m feeling about Jeb. Just what is he saying about US, behind our backs? Or worse yet, what would he do?

The negative approach just doesn’t build trust, does it?

PRAYING FOR A SAVIOR IN THE PARTY

As Donald Trump deflects blows to his populist demagoguery, we can feel the panic setting in on the Republican Party.

For the true believer in the “conservative” cause, it’s the recognition that the Donald’s anything but consistent in his ideological framework.

For the pragmatic problem-solver, it’s the recognition that the Donald’s business dealings have been idiosyncratic, piecemeal, erratic, flamboyant, egotistical – anything but a steady, reliable hand on the helm.

For the party leaders, it’s the recognition they can’t trust him, especially when it comes to their side of the operation. Just where does he stand, anyway? And what about all those out-and-out lies?

It’s the rogue elephant running through the circus, indeed.

Discussion of a brokered convention is percolating in the background. Keep any single candidate from winning on the first round of voting, and the delegates are free to wheel and deal. That’s the key, of course, thwarting a first-round victory.

The crux of this approach, in the minds of some strategists, is to start over – prevent any of the current candidates from clinching the nomination and then rally around a fresh face. But who?

The name of Paul Ryan, the new Speaker of the House, has surfaced. It’s a fascinating twist, especially if he can find a way to hold his own members of Congress in sway.

It’s a long shot, of course. And it would come at the end of what’s shaping up as a long, ugly primary campaign.

AN EXCLAMATION POINT IS RARELY A RAISED SWORD EXCEPT IN COMEDY

The red lawn sign – three of them, actually, in a pile of snow in front of a suburban store for lease – caught our attention:

JEB!

It’s that exclamation point, actually. Ever since one turned a pioneering Rodgers and Hammerstein musical into a 1943 Broadway hit, advertisers have looked to that imperative period to jazz up an otherwise flat word or concept. In the case of Oklahoma, the bright touch suggested the backyard of Texas or Arkansas might actually have something romantic or charming. And so it was Oklahoma! in a time of World War II, with a story and music to match. Back when the genre was often labeled American musical comedy, in fact. And think, one of the main characters was Jud – sounds like Jeb? – in a rivalry with Curly. Could that be the Donald?

Back to those lawn signs, though, where I keep seeing something else happening. The strong stroke on those exclamation points keep bending, and what I read is this:

JEB?
JEB?
JEB?

Any answer seems to get lost in the sound of traffic.

BLIZZARD? WE KNOW THAT PAIN

Following the rapidly changing weather forecast for the weekend as it evolved over the past seven days has spurred many emotions where I live. For a while, we watched our snowfall predictions rise for Saturday and then Sunday, prompting us to reconsider scheduling a gathering at our house. Let’s wait, my wife counseled, suggesting the next weekend could be even worse. And then the anticipated depths we viewed kept declining until, suddenly, there was no precipitation of any kind on tap for the weekend. What a relief, we thought.

But then we saw where that snow would be headed. It’s a strange feeling for New Englanders to see a blizzard steering south of us. Sparing most of us, in fact. We know what it’s like to be hammered and then buried. But we’re equipped to dig out, too, and accept it as part of the price of living where we do. We even know what it can do to a crowded city, where there are few places to dump the mounds as they accumulate. Driving along a street, you’d keep asking, Is that just a big pile of snow or is there a car under there?

It doesn’t take much snow to lock up a city, in fact. No matter how prepared a metropolis, six inches can really muck things up. And a foot can take days to clear free. But two? Now it’s getting serious.

We also know that even an inch of wet snow can make for some very hazardous driving. Forget what those four-wheel-drive advertisements say. We’ve seen enough of those vehicles spin off the road into the median strip or guardrail. There are acquired tricks to driving under these conditions, along with cautions. I think of it more along the lines of boating.

So when we see expectations of up to two feet of cold wet flakes blowing across Virginia and Maryland and even a corner of North Carolina(!) — and similar impacts on the District of Columbia and Baltimore — our sympathies fly southward. That’s even before Philadelphia and New York City are hit.

You probably don’t have neighbors with snowplows on their pickups, for one thing. You might not even have your own snow shovels at hand, much less snowblowers. As for those boots and gloves? We understand.

I can’t help but recall the broader term for “global warming” was “climatic instability,” which is what we’re seeing. Remember that if you hear the word “record” being applied to this storm. And no, I won’t refer to it by the cable channel’s name.

If you’re bearing the brunt of this storm, you have our sympathy. We know you’ll have your own names for the experience, few of which are publishable in polite circles. Our best advice is to stay put and take things easy as long as you can and hope you stay warm. Declare yourselves a snow day. And remember, this too shall pass.

RUNNING WITH THAT VALUES THING

Keep seeing more reactions to the Ted Cruz charge that Donald Trump embodies “New York values.”

Yes, the Donald had an emotionally charged retort in the debate, but the sound bite keeps echoing.

Is anybody asking just what values the junior senator from Texas embodies?

Are they “Texas values” like those we saw in LBJ or, gasp, the Bushes? Or the Koch Brothers, behind the scenes?

And if they’re not, just whose values is he advancing? Let us start articulating the Texas stereotype in its many negative connotations. He’s damned if he is and damned if he isn’t.

Well, he did raise the issue. Let’s see what it’s worth.

COUNTRYMEN, LEND ME YOUR EARS?

Opening a large manila envelope the came in the mail the other day, I half expected the contents to be some kind of political pitch. The presidential candidates are stepping in their direct-mail advertising and looking for ways to get a second look at their message.

What jumped out at me did cause a second take. A smiling older couple, meaning somewhere around my age, was looking at me. The demographic, I thought. And then the banner headline:

IS IT HEARING LOSS
OR JUST
EARWAX?

Something about free “Video Otoscope assessments” and a proposal “to actually see inside your ear canal – it would be fascinating, wouldn’t it?” had me thinking about the candidates and what might actually exist within their heads. But then there was something about “turning the TV louder than normal” and I realized, with all the political ads filling the airwaves these days, I’d be more likely to turn the sound off altogether.

MAKING SENSE OF THE DISARRAY

Let me admit that I’d anticipated the current field of Republican presidential hopefuls to run along the lines of the last one – a new front-runner every week while the previous one fell from view. Not so this time. Not yet.

David Frum’s provocative and well-reasoned article, “The Great Republican Revolt,” in the Atlantic magazine argues, among other points, that Trump’s base, fueled by anger and a sense of despair, has no use for the brand of conservatism demanded by the ideological purists. Rather, they may have much in common with emerging right-wing movements in Europe that are not hostile to public services. As Frum explains, “These populists seek to defend what the French call ‘acquired rights’—health care, pensions, and other programs that benefit older people—against bankers and technocrats who endlessly demand austerity; against migrants who make new claims and challenge accustomed ways; against a globalized market that depresses wages and benefits. In the United States, they lean Republican because they fear the Democrats want to take from them and redistribute to Americans who are newer, poorer, and in their view less deserving—to ‘spread the wealth around,’ in candidate Barack Obama’s words to ‘Joe the Plumber’ back in 2008. Yet they have come to fear more and more strongly that their party does not have their best interests at heart.”

As part of Frum’s subtitle asks – “Can the party reconcile the demands of its donors with the demands of its rank and file?” – a fundamental conflict between the party’s big-money establishment and its voter base centers on immigration and other global economics, the forces that have been eroding America’s middle class. While the investors and corporate executives have been enriched by these policies, many native-born Americans have seen themselves sliding downward. Pointedly, few Trump supporters have more than a high school education, and few earn more than $100,000 a year. Cutting public support to education, health services, and the like are not in their interest – especially when the cuts benefit the super rich.

In that regard, the Trump message (who knows about his actual platform, if any?) has many parallels with Bernie Sanders’ so-called socialist stands. That, alone, should have the GOP establishment shaking.

WHO ELSE WILL JEB BUSH TAKE DOWN AS HE SPIRALS AWAY IN FLAMES?

While the Republican Party establishment’s anticipated royal road to the presidential nomination for Jeb Bush has evaporated in front of their eyes, it’s only part of their nightmare.

For one thing, the usual stay-in-line pathway from one national presidential round to the next – finish second in the primaries and you’re likely to be the nominee next time – is falling apart. Just who’s in the pipeline now?

If Jeb was supposed to be rewarded for staying put while brother W took the stage, what we’re seeing a sibling with far less campaign savvy when put to the test. W, at least, could affect a public touch, unlike the stiffness we’re now seeing in mingling with the common classes. On top of that, what had been hailed Bush Dynasty is being found empty of any treasured accomplishment among the public. Why continue with mediocrity and failure?

Just what was the big-money donors seeing, anyway?

As Donald Trump surged out of, uh, left field to take the lead – and keep gaining – Jeb had one task if he’s serious about the nomination: cut into the front-runner’s lead. That means standing up to Trump at every turn. Show some strength and courage. Throw a few effective punches.

But that’s not what we’ve seen.

With the monetary resources of Right to Rise USA, the super PAC supporting his drive – it had $102.5 million back in August – Jeb could be relentlessly targeting the man in front of him.

Instead, our postal carrier has been delivering daily attacks printed on oversize card stock – full-color posters, 8.5-by-11 to -14 inches – deriding Chris Christie’s record as New Jersey governor and now Ohio Governor John Kasich, too. Jeb’s attacks on Marco Rubio have already taken on a tone of personal animosity.

In effect, Jeb is shooting at the other members of the posse that should all be in pursuit of, well, the guy who’s stealing their party. Or taking it back, depending.

These are not inexpensive flyers, either, but their “issues” are feeling sadly out of touch with potential voters, especially in a state where independents can weigh in with primary votes. He keeps touting “conservative” versus “liberal” labels, especially the TAX word, rather than coming up with anything that would directly benefit the typical American.

Aren’t any of his staff listening to Trump? Say what we will about the front-runner, he seems to know his audience. Maybe he also senses there’s no threat from the candidates running behind him.

It’s enough to make me wonder: Is Jeb intentionally working for Trump in keeping the pack at bay?